Ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft might instill dramatic changes in the way people think about transportation in urban areas. But these disruptive mobility companies and others like them will have a minimal impact on traditional automakers and car sales. In fact, they may be more of an opportunity than an existential threat.
Those are the conclusions of a new report issued this week by the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), an Ann Arbor, Michigan?based nonprofit that examines auto-related trends.
Even as some city dwellers reject car ownership in favor of these alternative transportation options, researchers say overall vehicle demand will remain high, as these new mobility services develop and turn over their fleets. In the end, these services will contribute a net loss of 15,163 vehicle sales per year in North America, the researchers say, in an industry on pace to sell roughly 17 million vehicles, a 0.08 percent loss. Worldwide, new mobility services hold the potential to make a more disruptive dent. But in the United States, where cheap gas and suburban geography still hold sway, personal economics still favor car ownership. For Americans who travel more than 2200 miles per year, ownership remains cheaper, though the break-even mileage point can vary based on make and model.
?New mobility services are far less adapted to sprawling and sparsely populated areas, where a majority of the United States population lives, and where the convenience of driving one...