From the November 2016 issue
Cheaper Batteries
One hundred and fifty dollars. That?s the magic number?the price for one kilowatt-hour?s worth of lithium-ion battery capacity?at which experts believe electric vehicles can become cost competitive with internal-combustion vehicles. The math requires several assumptions and approximations, but it generally goes like this:
According to Navigant Research, an internal-combustion powertrain (engine, transmission, and axle) costs between $4000 and $7000 per vehicle, and those figures will only rise with fuel-economy stand­ards. ?Over the next decade, we expect that range to increase by $1000 to $2000 as you add new emissions aftertreatment like particulate filters for direct-injection engines, 48-volt hybrids, and advanced multispeed transmissions,? said Navigant Research senior analyst Sam Abuelsamid. At $150 per kWh, a 50-kWh pack could deliver 200 miles of range for $7500. Add in $1500 to $2000 for a motor, power electronics, and a single-speed gearbox, and an EV could reach cost parity without today?s tax credits. EVs also benefit from lower operating costs, a roughly $1000 annual advantage.
The $150 mark is hardly guaranteed. It?s difficult enough to pinpoint lithium-ion battery costs today, let alone a decade from now. Jon Bereisa, who worked on the EV1 and the Chevrolet Volt during his 35 years with GM, estimates that the Chevrolet Bolt?s 60-kWh pack is priced at $215 per kWh. Tesla?s head of investor relations, Jeff Evanso...