A lot of tech believers?and some automakers?point to a future of the automobile that?s autonomous, connected, shared, and electric. But the time frame for the envisioned wholesale transformation from today’s reality to the next era of mobility is up for debate. In guessing just when these changes might happen, and how rapidly, traditional automakers face some tough (and expensive) decisions with make-or-break consequences. Do they spend billions now on the development of new platforms and assembly plants to mass-produce electric vehicles, or will internal combustion still reign for decades to come" Do they go big on research and development of automated driving systems for tomorrow?s production vehicles, or are such technologies going to be in test mode for the foreseeable future" Do they invest in the development of cleaner and more efficient internal-combustion technology, or is electric really approaching the tipping point" These uncertainties are underscored in a new research paper from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), which looks at some of the complexities that can make today?s market successes seem to be in conflict with what?s suggested by the much hyped mobility sector and some market projections for electric vehicles. The paper suggests a more pragmatic?some would say pessimistic? view about how quickly some new vehicle technologies will be adopted in the marketplace.
The paper wasn?t commissioned by a particular automaker or group ...